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Taques lidera com 32%; Lúdio e Riva empatam com 14%
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Taques lidera com 32%; Lúdio e Riva empatam com 14%

by newsmtagosto 14, 2014

O candidato do PDT ao governo de Mato Grosso, Pedro Taques, lidera as intenções de voto para as eleições de outubro deste ano. É o que aponta a PESQUISA eleitoral realizada pelo Instituto Gazeta Dados em 66 municípios do Estado entre os dias 8 e 10 de agosto. 

De acordo com a sondagem, o senador encabeça a lista de postulantes ao Palácio Paiaguás com 32% das intenções de voto, enquanto que seus dois principais adversários, José Riva (PSD), e Lúdio Cabral (PT) surgem empatados em 14%.

Em seguida aparece o candidato do Psol, José Roberto Cavalcante, com 3%, sucedido por José Marcondes, o “Muvuca” (PHS), com 1%. Os índices se referem à modalidade estimulada, em que os nomes dos concorrentes são apresentados previamente aos entrevistados para escolha.

Entre os 1.095 entrevistados, 27% não responderam ou disseram não saber em qual candidato votar. BRANCOS e nulos somaram 9%. 

Ou seja, 36% das pessoas que participaram da PESQUISA não escolheram entre os nomes colocados para disputa. 

Já na modalidade espontânea, o pedetista Pedro Taques também surge na liderança, com 11%. Lúdio Cabral (PT) e José Riva (PSD) empatam novamente, desta vez com 4% das intenções de voto.

Nesta modalidade, a pergunta é feita de forma livre ao entrevistado, que não recebe uma lista prévia dos concorrentes ao governo. Sendo assim, foram citados, com menos de 1% dos votos, o candidato José Marcondes “Muvuca”, o deputado estadual Walter Rabello (PSD), o senador Blairo Maggi (PR), o ex-presidente da República Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, e o vereador por Cuiabá Haroldo Kuzai (SD).

O número de eleitores que não respondeu ou declarou não saber responder chegou a 75% e outros 5% disseram que votariam em branco, nulo ou não escolheriam nenhum dos postulantes. A pesquisa quantitativa, registrada no Tribunal Regional Eleitoral sob o número 00048/2014, utilizou a técnica SURVEY, que consiste na aplicação de questionário padronizado a uma amostra representativa do público pesquisado.

A margem de erro de é 3% para mais ou para menos e o intervalo de confiança da PESQUISA é de 95%, isto é, se fossem realizadas 100 pesquisas, em 95 delas o resultado estariam iguais aos apresentados, dentro da margem de erro.

Segundo turno 

Em um eventual segundo turno, os pesquisadores apresentaram aos entrevistados os cenários possíveis entre os três principais candidatos ao governo do Estado. 

Na primeira simulação, Pedro Taques venceria com 38% dos votos contra 19% de Lúdio Cabral, tendo 13% de BRANCOS e nulos. Não sabem ou não responderam somaram 30%.

Na disputa entre Pedro Taques e José Riva, o pedetista também venceria, mas por 40% a 19%. 

Brancos e nulos seriam 12% e 29% não sabiam ou não responderam. 

Um último cenário apontaria vitória de Lúdio Cabral sobre José Riva por 30% a 21%. Brancos e nulos chegariam a 15% e 34% não responderam ou disseram não saber em quem votar.

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